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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Florida Gulf Coast

Conference:ASun
Expected RPI:172.0
Current RPI:172
Expected SOS:277
Current SOS:277
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:14-3
Expected Conf Record:14-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:16-4
Current OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC Record:6-8
Expected OOC RPI:178
Expected OOC SOS:114


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-11172.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Gulf Coast.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Illinois St. (85.0)MVCH98-87W100%0.0
11-13Siena (299.0)MAACA53-86W100%0.0
11-18Bowling Green (193.0)MACA83-80L0%0.0
11-21Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAA85-72L0%0.0
11-24Denver (224.0)SumH79-71W100%0.0
11-25Navy (200.0)PatH70-54W100%0.0
11-26St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH75-51W100%0.0
12-2Middle Tennessee (33.0)CUSAH76-81L0%0.0
12-5Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAH88-92L0%0.0
12-9UT Arlington (108.0)SBA78-85W100%0.0
12-16Oral Roberts (255.0)SumH64-83L0%0.0
12-19FIU (295.0)CUSAA91-88L0%0.0
12-22Wichita St. (16.0)AmerA75-65L0%0.0
12-27Rhode Island (19.0)A10A80-60L0%0.0
1-6Stetson (325.0)ASunH90-52W100%0.0
1-11USC Upstate (344.0)ASunH75-58W100%0.0
1-13NJIT (269.0)ASunH68-54W100%0.0
1-18Lipscomb (101.0)ASunA83-88W100%0.0
1-20Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunA49-66W100%0.0
1-24North Florida (218.0)ASunA87-96W100%0.0
1-27Jacksonville (286.0)ASunH68-62W100%0.0
1-29North Florida (218.0)ASunH103-70W100%0.0
2-3Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA55-80W100%0.0
2-8NJIT (269.0)ASunA70-75W100%0.0
2-10USC Upstate (344.0)ASunA71-88W100%0.0
2-15Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunH93-97L0%0.0
2-17Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH87-90L0%0.0
2-22Stetson (325.0)ASunA60-76W100%0.0
2-26USC Upstate (344.0)ASunH96-76W100%0.0
3-1North Florida (218.0)ASunH95-72W100%0.0
3-4Lipscomb (101.0)ASunH96-108L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Gulf Coast's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Florida Gulf Coast's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Florida Gulf Coast.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Florida Gulf CoastASun26.6426.6462.7562.756.796.79
LipscombASun5.775.7769.2369.232.222.22
North FloridaASun5.725.7240.7440.74-1.06-1.06
USC UpstateASun5.685.6812.0012.00-4.32-4.32
JacksonvilleASun4.214.2140.7440.74-0.78-0.78
StetsonASun4.184.1830.7730.77-1.61-1.61
NJITASun4.154.1546.1546.15-0.32-0.32
Kennesaw St.ASun4.124.1226.9226.92-1.90-1.90
Middle TennesseeCUSA3.283.2875.0075.001.641.64
FIUCUSA1.861.8635.7135.71-0.53-0.53
DenverSum1.841.8448.1548.15-0.07-0.07
NavyPat1.751.7563.3363.330.470.47
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.721.7229.6329.63-0.70-0.70
Bowling GreenMAC1.701.7044.8344.83-0.18-0.18
Oral RobertsSum1.701.7025.9325.93-0.82-0.82
St. Francis NYNEC1.671.6739.2939.29-0.36-0.36
Illinois St.MVC1.611.6154.8454.840.160.16
Rhode IslandA101.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
SienaMAAC1.611.6125.8125.81-0.78-0.78
UT ArlingtonSB1.611.6162.5062.500.400.40
Wichita St.Amer1.611.6177.4277.420.880.88
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.280.2844.4444.44-0.03-0.03
UABCUSA0.250.2558.0658.060.040.04
Southern MissCUSA0.250.2540.0040.00-0.05-0.05
BelmontOVC0.220.2272.7372.730.100.10
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.190.1946.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.190.1978.1278.120.110.11
North TexasCUSA0.190.1943.3343.33-0.03-0.03
RiceCUSA0.190.1917.2417.24-0.13-0.13
Fort WayneSum0.170.1750.0050.000.000.00
North Dakota St.Sum0.170.1741.3841.38-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.170.1746.4346.43-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.170.1773.3373.330.080.08
CharlotteCUSA0.170.1717.8617.86-0.11-0.11
Louisiana TechCUSA0.160.1648.3948.39-0.01-0.01
MarshallCUSA0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Western KentuckyCUSA0.160.1669.7069.700.060.06
Miami FLACC0.160.1670.9770.970.070.07
MinnesotaB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.140.1437.9337.93-0.03-0.03
LIU BrooklynNEC0.140.1451.5251.520.000.00
Tennessee TechOVC0.140.1454.8454.840.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.140.1480.0080.000.080.08
South FloridaAmer0.140.1431.2531.25-0.05-0.05
MichiganB100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.140.1453.3353.330.010.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.130.1358.6258.620.020.02
IonaMAAC0.130.1360.6160.610.030.03
AlabamaSEC0.130.1355.8855.880.020.02
VCUA100.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
TulsaAmer0.130.1361.2961.290.030.03
Holy CrossPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Kansas St.B120.120.1266.6766.670.040.04
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Western IllinoisSum0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
WagnerNEC0.110.1170.0070.000.050.05
Charleston SouthernBSth0.110.1142.8642.86-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
UNC AshevilleBSth0.110.1161.2961.290.030.03
BuffaloMAC0.110.1175.7675.760.060.06
CreightonBE0.110.1164.5264.520.030.03
BrownIvy0.110.1138.4638.46-0.03-0.03
DuquesneA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UTSACUSA0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.110.1140.0040.00-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
LafayettePat0.110.1130.0030.00-0.04-0.04
MaristMAAC0.110.1119.3519.35-0.07-0.07
Missouri St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
Ball St.MAC0.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
BryantNEC0.110.119.689.68-0.09-0.09
Georgia SouthernSB0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.090.0954.5554.550.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.090.0962.5062.500.020.02
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
DrexelCAA0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MilwaukeeHorz0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Morehead St.OVC0.080.0822.2222.22-0.05-0.05
PurdueB100.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
TennesseeSEC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
HofstraCAA0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Robert MorrisNEC0.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
FloridaSEC0.080.0862.5062.500.020.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
LSUSEC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Michigan St.B100.080.0887.8887.880.060.06
Mississippi St.SEC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
WoffordSC0.080.0860.0060.000.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.080.0877.4277.420.040.04
DavidsonA100.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
HoustonAmer0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.050.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Southern IllinoisMVC0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.080.0878.1278.120.040.04
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.070.0746.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Appalachian St.SB0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.070.0780.6580.650.040.04
ButlerBE0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
MercerSC0.060.0653.3353.330.000.00
NebraskaB100.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
RutgersB100.060.0642.4242.42-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
SeattleWAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UMass LowellAE0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
West VirginiaB120.060.0670.5970.590.020.02
YaleIvy0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Central ConnecticutNEC0.060.0643.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.060.0631.0331.03-0.02-0.02
GeorgetownBE0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.060.0656.2556.250.010.01
North Carolina St.ACC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.060.0613.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Sacred HeartNEC0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
South Carolina St.MEAC0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
St. Francis PANEC0.060.0657.1457.140.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kent St.MAC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AmericanPat0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Loyola MDPat0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
NevadaMWC0.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
BYUWCC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.020.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
OaklandHorz0.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Penn St.B100.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
TowsonCAA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UNLVMWC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
James MadisonCAA0.030.0329.0329.03-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Western MichiganMAC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.030.0315.6215.62-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
PennIvy0.030.0374.1974.190.010.01
PittsburghACC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
George WashingtonA100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
MarquetteBE0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
Saint LouisA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Cal PolyBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01